Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Activia Properties Inc. (3279.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$216,706.90 - $341,409.19$273,815.64
Multi-Stage$430,889.57 - $472,607.20$451,347.90
Blended Fair Value$362,581.77
Current Price$115,100.00
Upside215.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.03%7.77%12,715.3613,008.0812,923.6112,247.1312,685.2212,079.2610,744.849,684.798,365.817,214.11
YoY Growth---2.25%0.65%5.52%-3.45%5.02%12.42%10.95%15.77%15.96%19.89%
Dividend Yield--11.88%9.60%9.08%8.50%9.76%6.41%6.76%6.24%4.99%4.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25,990.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,150.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,840.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,198.123,248.831,949.30
Cash Retained (M)2,840.222,840.222,840.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,198.12-3,248.83-1,949.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,357.90-408.60890.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.191.191.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1,975.28-342.30746.36
LTM Dividend per Share19,393.7619,393.7619,393.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1,975.28-342.30746.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend17,418.4819,051.4620,140.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate-0.97%0.03%1.03%
Fair Value$216,706.90$273,815.64$341,409.19
Upside / Downside88.28%137.89%196.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25,990.6025,998.8426,007.0826,015.3226,023.5726,031.8126,812.77
Payout Ratio89.07%89.26%89.44%89.63%89.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,150.3823,205.9623,261.5823,317.2323,372.9223,428.6324,801.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate-0.97%0.03%1.03%
Year 1 PV (M)21,472.6821,689.5121,906.33
Year 2 PV (M)19,916.4820,320.7320,729.05
Year 3 PV (M)18,472.9819,038.2619,614.95
Year 4 PV (M)17,134.0317,836.6418,560.65
Year 5 PV (M)15,892.0616,710.8017,562.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)421,465.85443,179.30465,778.59
Equity Value (M)514,354.07538,775.23564,152.51
Shares Outstanding (M)1.191.191.19
Fair Value$430,889.57$451,347.90$472,607.20
Upside / Downside274.36%292.14%310.61%

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