Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited (0881.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.06 - $246.62$117.14
Multi-Stage$47.52 - $51.84$49.64
Blended Fair Value$83.39
Current Price$11.04
Upside655.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.62%23.86%0.710.970.710.460.380.300.270.230.040.06
YoY Growth---26.96%37.40%55.27%19.36%26.25%10.71%18.89%522.50%-39.97%-26.42%
Dividend Yield--5.41%5.74%1.99%0.92%0.82%1.06%2.00%1.55%0.59%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,232.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,109.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,123.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,246.58779.11467.47
Cash Retained (M)2,123.362,123.362,123.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,246.58-779.11-467.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)876.781,344.251,655.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.222,445.222,445.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.550.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.681.681.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.550.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.042.232.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.06$117.14$246.62
Upside / Downside543.61%961.08%2,133.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,232.916,638.057,069.527,529.048,018.438,539.638,795.81
Payout Ratio65.93%70.75%75.56%80.37%85.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,109.554,696.185,341.726,051.336,830.637,685.668,136.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,286.544,327.174,367.80
Year 2 PV (M)4,450.464,535.234,620.80
Year 3 PV (M)4,601.904,734.004,868.61
Year 4 PV (M)4,741.424,923.765,111.32
Year 5 PV (M)4,869.585,104.785,348.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)93,256.4597,760.78102,437.49
Equity Value (M)116,206.36121,385.73126,755.00
Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.222,445.222,445.22
Fair Value$47.52$49.64$51.84
Upside / Downside330.47%349.66%369.55%

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