Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$159.90 - $392.12$238.51
Multi-Stage$111.41 - $121.73$116.48
Blended Fair Value$177.49
Current Price$53.17
Upside233.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.180.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.14%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,215.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)431.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,784.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)443.07276.92166.15
Cash Retained (M)1,784.161,784.161,784.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-443.07-276.92-166.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,341.081,507.231,618.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)303.77303.77303.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.414.965.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.414.965.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.836.386.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$159.90$238.51$392.12
Upside / Downside200.73%348.58%637.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,215.362,359.362,512.722,676.042,849.993,035.243,126.29
Payout Ratio19.46%33.57%47.68%61.79%75.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)431.21792.071,198.031,653.412,162.942,731.712,891.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)717.55724.35731.15
Year 2 PV (M)983.201,001.921,020.83
Year 3 PV (M)1,229.251,264.541,300.50
Year 4 PV (M)1,456.771,512.791,570.41
Year 5 PV (M)1,666.741,747.241,830.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,788.8729,131.0830,524.66
Equity Value (M)33,842.3735,381.9236,978.38
Shares Outstanding (M)303.77303.77303.77
Fair Value$111.41$116.48$121.73
Upside / Downside109.53%119.06%128.95%

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