Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk (NISP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,693.78 - $4,586.35$3,515.82
Multi-Stage$2,921.82 - $3,191.21$3,054.04
Blended Fair Value$3,284.93
Current Price$1,355.00
Upside142.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%72.0058.0022.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--24.14%163.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.35%4.31%2.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,873,131.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,432,201.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,440,930.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)974,626.20609,141.38365,484.83
Cash Retained (M)2,440,930.002,440,930.002,440,930.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-974,626.20-609,141.38-365,484.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,466,303.801,831,788.632,075,445.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,945.3022,945.3022,945.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.9079.8390.45
LTM Dividend per Share106.00106.00106.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.9079.8390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend169.90185.83196.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate3.05%4.05%5.05%
Fair Value$2,693.78$3,515.82$4,586.35
Upside / Downside98.80%159.47%238.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,873,131.005,070,639.365,276,152.755,489,995.615,712,505.545,944,033.826,122,354.83
Payout Ratio49.91%57.93%65.95%73.96%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,432,201.002,937,337.713,479,425.544,060,629.964,683,231.295,349,630.445,663,178.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate3.05%4.05%5.05%
Year 1 PV (M)2,655,438.382,681,206.072,706,973.77
Year 2 PV (M)2,843,624.452,899,079.822,955,070.71
Year 3 PV (M)3,000,132.623,088,320.423,178,219.67
Year 4 PV (M)3,128,059.393,251,253.683,378,051.51
Year 5 PV (M)3,230,245.353,390,044.073,556,105.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,184,509.9454,766,053.0257,448,766.20
Equity Value (M)67,042,010.1270,075,957.0773,223,187.12
Shares Outstanding (M)22,945.3022,945.3022,945.30
Fair Value$2,921.82$3,054.04$3,191.21
Upside / Downside115.63%125.39%135.51%

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