Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Finward Bancorp (FNWD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.58 - $44.35$29.38
Multi-Stage$20.14 - $22.05$21.08
Blended Fair Value$25.23
Current Price$32.09
Upside-21.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.72%-2.53%0.481.241.181.001.000.950.800.760.730.69
YoY Growth---61.22%5.12%17.75%0.44%5.04%19.03%5.15%3.85%6.11%10.81%
Dividend Yield--1.66%5.02%4.06%2.17%2.34%3.02%1.93%1.73%1.86%2.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.940.590.35
Cash Retained (M)3.153.153.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.94-0.59-0.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.212.562.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.294.294.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Fair Value$20.58$29.38$44.35
Upside / Downside-35.87%-8.44%38.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.714.925.155.395.635.896.07
Payout Ratio33.06%44.45%55.83%67.22%78.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.562.192.883.624.435.305.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Year 1 PV (M)2.012.032.05
Year 2 PV (M)2.422.462.51
Year 3 PV (M)2.792.872.96
Year 4 PV (M)3.133.253.38
Year 5 PV (M)3.443.613.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)72.7176.2980.00
Equity Value (M)86.4990.5194.68
Shares Outstanding (M)4.294.294.29
Fair Value$20.14$21.08$22.05
Upside / Downside-37.24%-34.32%-31.30%

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