Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Excelsior Medical Co., Ltd. (4104.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.71 - $278.86$163.47
Multi-Stage$78.89 - $85.93$82.35
Blended Fair Value$122.91
Current Price$85.80
Upside43.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.99%10.10%3.443.152.882.882.712.242.081.861.771.64
YoY Growth--9.32%9.50%0.00%6.06%21.16%7.41%12.18%4.80%7.82%25.00%
Dividend Yield--4.12%3.57%4.18%5.28%5.61%5.37%5.17%4.74%4.74%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)804.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)620.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)183.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.83100.5260.31
Cash Retained (M)183.23183.23183.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.83-100.52-60.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.4082.71122.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)171.67171.67171.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.480.72
LTM Dividend per Share3.623.623.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.480.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.754.104.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$107.71$163.47$278.86
Upside / Downside25.54%90.52%225.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)804.14856.41912.07971.361,034.501,101.741,134.79
Payout Ratio77.21%79.77%82.33%84.89%87.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)620.91683.17750.90824.54904.59991.561,049.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)619.91625.78631.66
Year 2 PV (M)618.27630.04641.93
Year 3 PV (M)616.04633.72651.74
Year 4 PV (M)613.26636.85661.10
Year 5 PV (M)609.97639.44670.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,465.0010,970.4611,495.27
Equity Value (M)13,542.4514,136.2914,751.73
Shares Outstanding (M)171.67171.67171.67
Fair Value$78.89$82.35$85.93
Upside / Downside-8.06%-4.03%0.15%

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