Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Gas Holdings Limited (0384.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.07 - $215.52$201.94
Multi-Stage$55.26 - $60.59$57.87
Blended Fair Value$129.91
Current Price$7.62
Upside1,604.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.90%15.85%0.490.550.550.570.480.440.330.260.180.17
YoY Growth---11.82%-0.02%-2.29%17.40%8.67%35.11%27.72%45.85%1.24%55.58%
Dividend Yield--6.89%7.91%5.01%5.65%1.52%1.65%1.18%0.90%1.41%1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,940.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,629.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)311.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,188.07742.54445.53
Cash Retained (M)311.12311.12311.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,188.07-742.54-445.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-876.95-431.42-134.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,399.435,399.435,399.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.02
WACC / Discount Rate4.98%4.98%4.98%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Fair Value$84.07$201.94$215.52
Upside / Downside1,003.24%2,550.17%2,728.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,940.366,230.736,535.306,854.757,189.827,541.277,767.51
Payout Ratio94.76%93.81%92.86%91.91%90.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,629.245,845.056,068.526,299.866,539.326,787.147,184.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.98%4.98%4.98%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)5,514.915,568.005,621.08
Year 2 PV (M)5,402.365,506.865,612.37
Year 3 PV (M)5,291.545,445.825,603.07
Year 4 PV (M)5,182.445,384.885,593.19
Year 5 PV (M)5,075.035,324.045,582.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)271,913.08285,254.28299,114.07
Equity Value (M)298,379.36312,483.87327,126.50
Shares Outstanding (M)5,399.435,399.435,399.43
Fair Value$55.26$57.87$60.59
Upside / Downside625.21%659.49%695.08%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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