Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Korea District Heating Corp. (071320.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$610,563.29 - $1,501,500.52$911,653.90
Multi-Stage$828,796.46 - $910,519.91$868,880.00
Blended Fair Value$890,266.95
Current Price$90,300.00
Upside885.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-5.53%1,715.66940.35807.99978.31152.020.002,858.893,852.403,669.922,139.10
YoY Growth--82.45%16.38%-17.41%543.54%0.00%-100.00%-25.79%4.97%71.56%-29.43%
Dividend Yield--3.46%2.51%3.00%2.68%0.40%0.00%4.69%4.58%5.49%3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)327,691.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64,200.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)263,490.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65,538.2440,961.4024,576.84
Cash Retained (M)263,490.44263,490.44263,490.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-65,538.24-40,961.40-24,576.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)197,952.20222,529.04238,913.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.4211.4211.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share17,331.9219,483.7720,918.34
LTM Dividend per Share5,621.175,621.175,621.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share17,331.9219,483.7720,918.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend22,953.0925,104.9426,539.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate2.19%3.19%4.19%
Fair Value$610,563.29$911,653.90$1,501,500.52
Upside / Downside576.15%909.58%1,562.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)327,691.19338,133.49348,908.54360,026.96371,499.68383,337.99394,838.13
Payout Ratio19.59%33.67%47.76%61.84%75.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64,200.75113,861.30166,621.65222,628.93282,036.50345,004.19365,225.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate2.19%3.19%4.19%
Year 1 PV (M)106,347.08107,387.79108,428.51
Year 2 PV (M)145,355.10148,213.91151,100.57
Year 3 PV (M)181,396.90186,774.65192,257.64
Year 4 PV (M)214,636.22223,162.09231,939.47
Year 5 PV (M)245,228.81257,465.03270,184.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,572,927.529,000,692.269,445,364.50
Equity Value (M)9,465,891.629,923,695.7210,399,275.57
Shares Outstanding (M)11.4211.4211.42
Fair Value$828,796.46$868,880.00$910,519.91
Upside / Downside817.83%862.21%908.33%

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