Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.43 - $202.43$189.71
Multi-Stage$33.20 - $36.28$34.71
Blended Fair Value$112.21
Current Price$13.98
Upside702.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.65%11.17%0.920.860.820.740.610.580.580.500.460.41
YoY Growth--6.77%5.04%11.17%22.02%4.18%0.16%16.32%9.02%12.44%27.41%
Dividend Yield--6.88%5.79%5.68%4.07%4.24%5.29%5.38%3.86%3.73%4.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.130.700.42
Cash Retained (M)0.210.210.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.13-0.70-0.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.92-0.50-0.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.545.545.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.09-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.09-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$111.43$189.71$202.43
Upside / Downside697.08%1,257.01%1,348.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.646.006.396.817.257.727.95
Payout Ratio96.30%95.04%93.78%92.52%91.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.435.705.996.306.626.957.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5.325.375.42
Year 2 PV (M)5.215.315.41
Year 3 PV (M)5.105.255.40
Year 4 PV (M)5.005.195.39
Year 5 PV (M)4.895.135.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)158.28165.92173.86
Equity Value (M)183.79192.16200.84
Shares Outstanding (M)5.545.545.54
Fair Value$33.20$34.71$36.28
Upside / Downside137.46%148.27%159.49%

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