Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,562.23 - $6,912.46$4,894.77
Multi-Stage$3,948.33 - $4,307.20$4,124.50
Blended Fair Value$4,509.63
Current Price$2,780.00
Upside62.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.32%8.51%178.50167.60149.97126.00113.03109.22134.1397.8497.5673.88
YoY Growth--6.50%11.76%19.02%11.48%3.49%-18.57%37.09%0.29%32.04%-6.31%
Dividend Yield--7.41%4.77%3.69%2.75%3.30%3.46%3.41%2.72%2.36%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,758,000.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,047,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)711,000.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,351,600.002,719,750.001,631,850.00
Cash Retained (M)711,000.00711,000.00711,000.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,351,600.00-2,719,750.00-1,631,850.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3,640,600.00-2,008,750.00-920,850.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99,061.7899,061.7899,061.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-36.75-20.28-9.30
LTM Dividend per Share212.46212.46212.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share-36.75-20.28-9.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend175.71192.19203.17
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Fair Value$3,562.23$4,894.77$6,912.46
Upside / Downside28.14%76.07%148.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,758,000.0022,687,996.9423,657,744.5224,668,941.7825,723,360.4126,822,847.7927,627,533.22
Payout Ratio96.73%95.39%94.04%92.69%91.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,047,000.0021,641,124.9222,247,587.2422,866,356.2023,497,375.8524,140,563.0125,555,468.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Year 1 PV (M)19,778,436.4519,969,950.1320,161,463.81
Year 2 PV (M)18,582,629.4618,944,241.2319,309,337.60
Year 3 PV (M)17,455,541.9617,967,531.2718,489,435.42
Year 4 PV (M)16,393,355.6517,037,581.9317,700,611.82
Year 5 PV (M)15,392,459.3816,152,254.0416,941,760.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)303,525,899.13318,508,388.43334,076,768.24
Equity Value (M)391,128,322.03408,579,947.03426,679,377.38
Shares Outstanding (M)99,061.7899,061.7899,061.78
Fair Value$3,948.33$4,124.50$4,307.20
Upside / Downside42.03%48.36%54.94%

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