Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. (NTGY.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.51 - $19.19$16.30
Multi-Stage$31.11 - $34.25$32.65
Blended Fair Value$24.48
Current Price$27.00
Upside-9.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.76%-1.57%1.001.521.561.781.881.981.461.341.591.12
YoY Growth---33.93%-3.07%-12.13%-5.27%-5.21%35.79%9.03%-15.86%42.62%-4.89%
Dividend Yield--3.89%7.47%5.64%6.55%8.99%12.30%5.84%6.90%7.75%6.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,152.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)852.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.00250.63150.38
Cash Retained (M)852.29852.29852.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.00-250.63-150.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)451.29601.67701.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)959.03959.03959.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.630.73
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.630.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.831.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.36%7.36%7.36%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Fair Value$13.51$16.30$19.19
Upside / Downside-49.98%-39.62%-28.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,005.001,935.431,868.261,803.431,740.851,680.451,730.86
Payout Ratio57.49%63.99%70.50%77.00%83.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,152.711,238.541,317.031,388.591,453.581,512.401,601.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.36%7.36%7.36%
Growth Rate-4.47%-3.47%-2.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1,141.681,153.631,165.58
Year 2 PV (M)1,119.081,142.631,166.43
Year 3 PV (M)1,087.601,122.111,157.35
Year 4 PV (M)1,049.461,094.101,140.15
Year 5 PV (M)1,006.531,060.321,116.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,434.2225,740.1527,101.34
Equity Value (M)29,838.5631,312.9532,847.23
Shares Outstanding (M)959.03959.03959.03
Fair Value$31.11$32.65$34.25
Upside / Downside15.23%20.93%26.85%

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