Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (HVN.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$114.67 - $135.17$126.65
Multi-Stage$449.46 - $494.66$471.62
Blended Fair Value$299.13
Current Price$5.27
Upside5,576.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.50%-1.09%0.240.220.300.350.380.260.270.210.280.21
YoY Growth--9.09%-27.87%-12.86%-7.89%46.81%-5.73%27.97%-22.50%29.26%-20.01%
Dividend Yield--4.55%5.25%8.75%9.42%6.92%7.30%6.96%6.71%7.53%4.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)870.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)573.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)297.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.09108.8165.29
Cash Retained (M)297.31297.31297.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.09-108.81-65.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.21188.50232.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,248.431,248.431,248.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate-29.54%-29.54%-29.54%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Fair Value$114.67$126.65$135.17
Upside / Downside2,075.98%2,303.13%2,464.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)870.47903.47937.73973.291,010.191,048.501,079.95
Payout Ratio65.85%70.68%75.51%80.34%85.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)573.16638.54708.06781.92860.37943.65998.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-29.54%-29.54%-29.54%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Year 1 PV (M)897.54906.27915.01
Year 2 PV (M)1,398.931,426.281,453.90
Year 3 PV (M)2,171.492,235.482,300.72
Year 4 PV (M)3,358.503,491.113,627.61
Year 5 PV (M)5,177.665,434.465,701.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)548,112.50575,297.63603,550.87
Equity Value (M)561,116.62588,791.23617,549.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,248.431,248.431,248.43
Fair Value$449.46$471.62$494.66
Upside / Downside8,428.58%8,849.21%9,286.32%

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