Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Holmen AB (publ) (HOLM-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$267.59 - $488.10$359.02
Multi-Stage$260.09 - $283.55$271.61
Blended Fair Value$315.31
Current Price$357.40
Upside-11.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.06%9.25%11.6416.4811.8411.073.617.216.946.415.615.34
YoY Growth---29.36%39.21%6.95%207.05%-50.00%3.85%8.33%14.29%5.00%11.11%
Dividend Yield--2.93%3.79%2.97%2.10%0.94%2.64%3.37%2.83%3.21%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,856.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,888.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)968.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)571.20357.00214.20
Cash Retained (M)968.00968.00968.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-571.20-357.00-214.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)396.80611.00753.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.24157.24157.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.523.894.79
LTM Dividend per Share12.0112.0112.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.523.894.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.5315.8916.80
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$267.59$359.02$488.10
Upside / Downside-25.13%0.45%36.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,856.003,000.513,152.323,311.823,479.393,655.443,765.11
Payout Ratio66.11%70.89%75.66%80.44%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,888.002,126.912,385.172,664.122,965.183,289.903,482.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)1,920.211,938.661,957.11
Year 2 PV (M)1,944.091,981.632,019.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,960.412,017.482,075.63
Year 4 PV (M)1,969.902,046.722,125.77
Year 5 PV (M)1,973.212,069.862,170.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,128.0632,652.7634,236.64
Equity Value (M)40,895.8742,707.1144,584.95
Shares Outstanding (M)157.24157.24157.24
Fair Value$260.09$271.61$283.55
Upside / Downside-27.23%-24.00%-20.66%

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