Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.05 - $1.57$1.30
Multi-Stage$2.06 - $2.27$2.16
Blended Fair Value$1.73
Current Price$1.25
Upside38.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.060.060.060.030.010.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2.12%0.49%105.49%413.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.20%5.35%5.37%2.41%0.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)332.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)209.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.4641.5424.92
Cash Retained (M)123.10123.10123.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.46-41.54-24.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.6481.5698.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,599.242,599.242,599.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.05$1.30$1.57
Upside / Downside-16.02%3.65%25.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)332.30328.98325.69322.43319.21316.01325.49
Payout Ratio62.96%68.36%73.77%79.18%84.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)209.20224.90240.27255.31270.02284.41301.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)207.01209.12211.23
Year 2 PV (M)203.55207.73211.95
Year 3 PV (M)199.08205.24211.52
Year 4 PV (M)193.80201.83210.11
Year 5 PV (M)187.89197.67207.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,373.724,601.474,838.61
Equity Value (M)5,365.055,623.065,891.28
Shares Outstanding (M)2,599.242,599.242,599.24
Fair Value$2.06$2.16$2.27
Upside / Downside65.13%73.07%81.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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