Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Finward Bancorp (FNWD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.16 - $95.98$47.42
Multi-Stage$27.62 - $30.28$28.93
Blended Fair Value$38.17
Current Price$32.09
Upside18.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.72%-2.53%0.481.241.181.001.000.950.800.760.730.69
YoY Growth---61.22%5.12%17.75%0.44%5.04%19.03%5.15%3.85%6.11%10.81%
Dividend Yield--1.66%5.02%4.06%2.17%2.34%3.02%1.93%1.73%1.86%2.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.940.590.35
Cash Retained (M)3.153.153.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.94-0.59-0.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.212.562.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.294.294.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Fair Value$29.16$47.42$95.98
Upside / Downside-9.14%47.76%199.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.714.925.155.395.635.896.07
Payout Ratio33.06%44.45%55.83%67.22%78.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.562.192.883.624.435.305.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate3.59%4.59%5.59%
Year 1 PV (M)2.032.052.07
Year 2 PV (M)2.482.522.57
Year 3 PV (M)2.902.983.07
Year 4 PV (M)3.293.423.55
Year 5 PV (M)3.653.834.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)104.29109.42114.75
Equity Value (M)118.63124.23130.03
Shares Outstanding (M)4.294.294.29
Fair Value$27.62$28.93$30.28
Upside / Downside-13.92%-9.86%-5.65%

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