Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Engie Brasil Energia S.A. (EGIE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.03 - $55.94$45.24
Multi-Stage$49.47 - $54.18$51.78
Blended Fair Value$48.51
Current Price$40.70
Upside19.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.89%0.48%1.392.922.803.421.522.772.441.031.430.86
YoY Growth---52.34%4.09%-18.14%125.04%-45.11%13.61%137.29%-27.95%65.26%-34.86%
Dividend Yield--3.60%7.38%6.93%7.79%3.53%6.97%5.44%3.07%4.10%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,034.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,204.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,829.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)606.86379.29227.57
Cash Retained (M)1,829.461,829.461,829.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-606.86-379.29-227.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,222.601,450.171,601.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)815.93815.93815.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.501.781.96
LTM Dividend per Share1.481.481.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.501.781.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.983.253.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Fair Value$36.03$45.24$55.94
Upside / Downside-11.47%11.15%37.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,034.303,086.843,140.283,194.653,249.963,306.233,405.42
Payout Ratio39.71%49.77%59.82%69.88%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,204.851,536.201,878.662,232.522,598.072,975.613,150.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Year 1 PV (M)1,394.881,408.721,422.57
Year 2 PV (M)1,548.911,579.811,611.03
Year 3 PV (M)1,671.331,721.601,772.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,766.071,837.251,910.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,836.631,929.622,026.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,143.3433,770.8435,463.59
Equity Value (M)40,361.1642,247.8544,206.97
Shares Outstanding (M)815.93815.93815.93
Fair Value$49.47$51.78$54.18
Upside / Downside21.54%27.22%33.12%

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