Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. (BOTJ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.36 - $81.77$44.46
Multi-Stage$19.02 - $20.79$19.89
Blended Fair Value$32.18
Current Price$15.60
Upside106.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.20%13.64%0.400.320.300.280.270.270.230.230.230.18
YoY Growth--24.44%7.03%7.40%4.61%-0.90%16.76%0.00%0.00%30.76%58.70%
Dividend Yield--2.71%3.15%2.86%1.88%2.09%3.39%1.83%1.66%1.74%1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.030.650.39
Cash Retained (M)3.803.803.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.03-0.65-0.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.773.153.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.544.544.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.690.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.690.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.910.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.36$44.46$81.77
Upside / Downside81.82%185.02%424.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.165.505.866.246.647.087.29
Payout Ratio26.41%39.13%51.85%64.57%77.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.362.153.044.035.136.376.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1.961.982.00
Year 2 PV (M)2.512.562.61
Year 3 PV (M)3.033.123.21
Year 4 PV (M)3.523.653.79
Year 5 PV (M)3.974.164.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)71.4374.8878.47
Equity Value (M)86.4290.3594.43
Shares Outstanding (M)4.544.544.54
Fair Value$19.02$19.89$20.79
Upside / Downside21.94%27.49%33.24%

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