Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AMETEK, Inc. (AME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$205.01 - $1,033.64$366.96
Multi-Stage$122.56 - $134.05$128.20
Blended Fair Value$247.58
Current Price$188.00
Upside31.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.21%12.38%1.120.990.870.800.710.550.560.360.360.37
YoY Growth--12.35%13.93%9.52%11.85%29.44%-1.10%55.81%-0.64%-3.16%6.75%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.55%0.60%0.60%0.56%0.76%0.66%0.47%0.66%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,468.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)279.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,189.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)293.76183.60110.16
Cash Retained (M)1,189.711,189.711,189.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-293.76-183.60-110.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)895.951,006.111,079.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)231.70231.70231.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.874.344.66
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.874.344.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.075.555.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$205.01$366.96$1,033.64
Upside / Downside9.05%95.19%449.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,468.801,564.271,665.951,774.231,889.562,012.382,072.75
Payout Ratio19.00%33.20%47.40%61.60%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)279.08519.35789.671,092.931,432.291,811.141,917.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.11%8.11%8.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)475.88480.39484.90
Year 2 PV (M)663.01675.64688.39
Year 3 PV (M)840.83864.96889.56
Year 4 PV (M)1,009.671,048.501,088.44
Year 5 PV (M)1,169.881,226.381,285.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,236.4625,407.0926,622.52
Equity Value (M)28,395.7229,702.9631,058.86
Shares Outstanding (M)231.70231.70231.70
Fair Value$122.56$128.20$134.05
Upside / Downside-34.81%-31.81%-28.70%

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