Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Cheerwin Group Limited (6601.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.28 - $3.30$2.77
Multi-Stage$3.95 - $4.34$4.14
Blended Fair Value$3.46
Current Price$2.55
Upside35.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-6.60%0.00%0.120.060.070.040.190.170.160.000.000.00
YoY Growth--86.98%-12.62%63.86%-76.41%12.55%0.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.97%4.85%4.45%1.74%2.78%2.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)415.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)241.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)174.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.0951.9331.16
Cash Retained (M)174.39174.39174.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.09-51.93-31.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.30122.46143.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.331,333.331,333.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.28$2.77$3.30
Upside / Downside-10.75%8.74%29.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)415.46411.30407.19403.12399.08395.09406.95
Payout Ratio58.02%64.42%70.81%77.21%83.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)241.07264.96288.35311.24333.65355.58376.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)241.21243.67246.14
Year 2 PV (M)238.98243.88248.84
Year 3 PV (M)234.84242.10249.51
Year 4 PV (M)229.19238.69248.48
Year 5 PV (M)222.36233.94246.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,105.004,318.764,541.33
Equity Value (M)5,271.595,521.055,780.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.331,333.331,333.33
Fair Value$3.95$4.14$4.34
Upside / Downside55.05%62.38%70.01%

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