Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited (600188.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$193.52 - $228.00$213.67
Multi-Stage$48.10 - $52.65$50.34
Blended Fair Value$132.00
Current Price$13.31
Upside891.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.13%23.93%1.922.561.010.490.460.630.740.460.340.26
YoY Growth---24.71%152.42%108.50%5.19%-26.39%-15.31%60.99%33.94%33.99%13.79%
Dividend Yield--14.44%13.95%5.55%2.47%6.81%14.15%12.99%6.51%5.88%4.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,508.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,924.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,583.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,301.761,438.60863.16
Cash Retained (M)2,583.902,583.902,583.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,301.76-1,438.60-863.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)282.141,145.301,720.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,038.6310,038.6310,038.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.110.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.110.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate5.52%5.52%5.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$193.52$213.67$228.00
Upside / Downside1,353.95%1,505.33%1,613.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,508.7812,256.8513,053.5513,902.0314,805.6615,768.0316,241.07
Payout Ratio77.55%80.04%82.53%85.02%87.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,924.889,810.2310,772.9711,819.4212,956.3914,191.2215,022.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.52%5.52%5.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,209.439,296.729,384.01
Year 2 PV (M)9,493.849,674.679,857.21
Year 3 PV (M)9,778.1310,058.8210,344.84
Year 4 PV (M)10,062.2910,449.2510,847.28
Year 5 PV (M)10,346.3210,846.0511,364.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)434,010.06454,972.91476,738.05
Equity Value (M)482,900.06505,298.43528,536.30
Shares Outstanding (M)10,038.6310,038.6310,038.63
Fair Value$48.10$50.34$52.65
Upside / Downside261.41%278.18%295.57%

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