Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., Ltd. (600000.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.83 - $90.96$51.95
Multi-Stage$55.16 - $60.62$57.84
Blended Fair Value$54.90
Current Price$11.90
Upside361.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.30%16.65%1.741.261.711.741.601.281.030.180.360.46
YoY Growth--37.65%-26.06%-1.71%8.45%25.11%24.58%461.41%-48.94%-21.14%22.01%
Dividend Yield--16.68%17.48%23.77%21.73%14.59%12.63%8.99%1.57%2.91%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48,853.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,091.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,762.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,770.606,106.633,663.98
Cash Retained (M)25,762.0025,762.0025,762.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,770.60-6,106.63-3,663.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,991.4019,655.3822,098.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33,009.1333,009.1333,009.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.36%5.36%5.36%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Fair Value$33.83$51.95$90.96
Upside / Downside184.32%336.59%664.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48,853.0050,219.2651,623.7353,067.4754,551.6056,077.2257,759.54
Payout Ratio47.27%55.81%64.36%72.91%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,091.0028,028.8933,224.9138,689.6444,434.0550,469.5053,427.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.36%5.36%5.36%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Year 1 PV (M)26,344.4526,603.2526,862.04
Year 2 PV (M)29,351.5029,931.0030,516.17
Year 3 PV (M)32,125.1033,081.1734,056.03
Year 4 PV (M)34,677.5936,060.4237,484.20
Year 5 PV (M)37,020.7538,875.2040,803.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,661,383.091,744,605.181,831,129.38
Equity Value (M)1,820,902.481,909,156.232,000,851.05
Shares Outstanding (M)33,009.1333,009.1333,009.13
Fair Value$55.16$57.84$60.62
Upside / Downside363.56%386.03%409.37%

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