Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China BlueChemical Ltd. (3983.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.73 - $7.23$5.90
Multi-Stage$7.10 - $7.79$7.44
Blended Fair Value$6.67
Current Price$1.92
Upside247.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.65%3.99%0.210.180.160.080.080.150.070.050.080.12
YoY Growth--16.29%14.84%93.75%5.26%-49.33%114.29%40.00%-37.50%-33.33%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--10.25%9.94%9.51%4.52%7.38%8.72%3.24%2.39%4.17%6.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,378.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)954.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,423.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)475.62297.26178.36
Cash Retained (M)1,423.851,423.851,423.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-475.62-297.26-178.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)948.221,126.581,245.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,610.004,610.004,610.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Fair Value$4.73$5.90$7.23
Upside / Downside146.19%207.18%276.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,378.122,400.192,422.472,444.962,467.652,490.552,565.27
Payout Ratio40.13%50.10%60.08%70.05%80.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)954.271,202.541,455.331,712.711,974.752,241.502,372.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)1,095.811,106.771,117.74
Year 2 PV (M)1,208.461,232.771,257.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,295.961,335.261,375.34
Year 4 PV (M)1,361.621,416.941,473.94
Year 5 PV (M)1,408.371,480.271,555.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,376.1427,722.5829,123.45
Equity Value (M)32,746.3634,294.5935,902.85
Shares Outstanding (M)4,610.004,610.004,610.00
Fair Value$7.10$7.44$7.79
Upside / Downside269.97%287.46%305.63%

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