Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hap Seng Consolidated Berhad (3034.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.16 - $1.58$1.37
Multi-Stage$2.54 - $2.78$2.66
Blended Fair Value$2.01
Current Price$2.53
Upside-20.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.56%-2.03%0.220.250.300.350.250.350.350.350.340.26
YoY Growth---10.51%-16.67%-14.29%40.00%-28.57%0.00%0.00%1.59%32.79%-5.57%
Dividend Yield--8.16%5.58%5.88%4.68%2.99%4.59%3.57%3.55%3.83%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)588.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)528.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.6973.5544.13
Cash Retained (M)59.7059.7059.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.69-73.55-44.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-57.98-13.8515.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,489.672,489.672,489.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-6.52%-5.52%-4.52%
Fair Value$1.16$1.37$1.58
Upside / Downside-54.20%-45.82%-37.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)588.43555.94525.25496.25468.86442.97456.26
Payout Ratio89.85%89.88%89.91%89.94%89.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)528.73499.70472.27446.34421.83398.68422.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate-6.52%-5.52%-4.52%
Year 1 PV (M)454.70459.57464.43
Year 2 PV (M)391.04399.45407.96
Year 3 PV (M)336.30347.20358.35
Year 4 PV (M)289.21301.79314.77
Year 5 PV (M)248.72262.31276.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,593.104,844.095,105.93
Equity Value (M)6,313.086,614.426,927.93
Shares Outstanding (M)2,489.672,489.672,489.67
Fair Value$2.54$2.66$2.78
Upside / Downside0.23%5.01%9.99%

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