Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited (2357.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.44 - $78.96$29.15
Multi-Stage$10.21 - $11.15$10.67
Blended Fair Value$19.91
Current Price$4.04
Upside392.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS68.51%36.98%0.320.120.130.210.100.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--159.77%-8.84%-35.36%107.37%328.06%4.68%50.00%8.98%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.78%4.04%4.34%4.74%2.21%0.75%0.52%0.42%0.29%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,122.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,086.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,036.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)824.40515.25309.15
Cash Retained (M)2,036.012,036.012,036.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-824.40-515.25-309.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,211.611,520.761,726.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,984.437,984.437,984.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.44$29.15$78.96
Upside / Downside306.96%621.62%1,854.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,122.014,389.944,675.294,979.185,302.835,647.515,816.94
Payout Ratio50.61%58.49%66.36%74.24%82.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,086.002,567.463,102.703,696.674,354.755,082.765,380.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,351.692,373.982,396.27
Year 2 PV (M)2,603.102,652.682,702.73
Year 3 PV (M)2,840.782,922.333,005.42
Year 4 PV (M)3,065.253,183.133,304.38
Year 5 PV (M)3,277.013,435.293,599.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,358.4670,611.9073,989.85
Equity Value (M)81,496.2885,179.3088,998.28
Shares Outstanding (M)7,984.437,984.437,984.43
Fair Value$10.21$10.67$11.15
Upside / Downside152.65%164.06%175.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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