Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Maike Tube Industry Holdings Limited (1553.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.13 - $9.25$7.60
Multi-Stage$12.25 - $13.48$12.85
Blended Fair Value$10.23
Current Price$1.28
Upside699.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.090.090.100.000.000.000.000.050.00
YoY Growth--20.36%5.96%-14.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.02%7.25%8.57%9.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.71%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)310.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)223.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.0538.7823.27
Cash Retained (M)223.60223.60223.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.05-38.78-23.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)161.56184.82200.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.80433.80433.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.13$7.60$9.25
Upside / Downside378.78%493.93%622.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)310.23307.12304.05301.01298.00295.02303.87
Payout Ratio27.92%40.34%52.75%65.17%77.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.63123.89160.40196.17231.20265.52281.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)114.46115.62116.79
Year 2 PV (M)136.90139.71142.55
Year 3 PV (M)154.68159.46164.35
Year 4 PV (M)168.43175.41182.60
Year 5 PV (M)178.70188.00197.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,559.744,797.185,044.40
Equity Value (M)5,312.905,575.385,848.38
Shares Outstanding (M)433.80433.80433.80
Fair Value$12.25$12.85$13.48
Upside / Downside856.82%904.10%953.26%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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