Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Lilang Limited (1234.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.73 - $25.20$17.62
Multi-Stage$62.68 - $69.23$65.89
Blended Fair Value$41.76
Current Price$3.41
Upside1,124.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.22%0.83%0.330.290.280.370.440.510.410.350.360.35
YoY Growth--14.25%2.24%-23.64%-14.34%-14.77%23.65%17.64%-2.48%4.30%12.78%
Dividend Yield--9.16%7.62%8.57%10.50%9.78%8.99%7.13%6.67%9.21%7.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)963.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)641.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)321.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)192.66120.4172.25
Cash Retained (M)321.69321.69321.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-192.66-120.41-72.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)129.03201.28249.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,197.491,197.491,197.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Fair Value$12.73$17.62$25.20
Upside / Downside273.31%416.85%638.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)963.29953.21943.23933.36923.60913.93941.35
Payout Ratio66.61%71.28%75.96%80.64%85.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)641.60679.49716.51752.68788.02822.54870.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.91%2.91%2.91%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Year 1 PV (M)653.63660.30666.97
Year 2 PV (M)663.01676.62690.37
Year 3 PV (M)669.98690.71711.86
Year 4 PV (M)674.74702.72731.56
Year 5 PV (M)677.50712.79749.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)71,720.5575,457.0179,347.60
Equity Value (M)75,059.4178,900.1682,897.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,197.491,197.491,197.49
Fair Value$62.68$65.89$69.23
Upside / Downside1,738.15%1,832.21%1,930.11%

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