Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lion Rock Group Limited (1127.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.29 - $26.66$16.63
Multi-Stage$8.43 - $9.20$8.81
Blended Fair Value$12.72
Current Price$1.38
Upside821.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.02%6.48%0.120.130.090.080.040.100.100.090.070.07
YoY Growth---2.59%44.44%12.50%92.31%-60.00%5.26%5.56%28.57%0.00%7.69%
Dividend Yield--9.68%11.57%9.57%9.32%5.09%8.70%7.22%5.83%5.28%6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)404.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)213.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.9150.5730.34
Cash Retained (M)213.46213.46213.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.91-50.57-30.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.55162.89183.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)756.54756.54756.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Fair Value$11.29$16.63$26.66
Upside / Downside717.95%1,105.03%1,831.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)404.54430.12457.32486.24516.99549.68566.17
Payout Ratio47.23%55.79%64.34%72.89%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.08239.95294.24354.44421.07494.71523.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Year 1 PV (M)217.44219.51221.57
Year 2 PV (M)241.62246.23250.89
Year 3 PV (M)263.75271.33279.06
Year 4 PV (M)283.93294.87306.12
Year 5 PV (M)302.30316.92332.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,067.415,312.595,567.16
Equity Value (M)6,376.456,661.456,956.91
Shares Outstanding (M)756.54756.54756.54
Fair Value$8.43$8.81$9.20
Upside / Downside510.75%538.05%566.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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