Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shaanxi Energy Investment (001286.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.75 - $10.19$8.37
Multi-Stage$13.99 - $15.37$14.66
Blended Fair Value$11.52
Current Price$8.94
Upside28.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.410.350.110.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--17.14%228.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.46%3.58%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,928.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,876.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,051.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)585.62366.01219.61
Cash Retained (M)1,051.601,051.601,051.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-585.62-366.01-219.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)465.98685.59831.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,725.103,725.103,725.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.75$8.37$10.19
Upside / Downside-24.54%-6.37%14.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,928.112,898.832,869.842,841.152,812.732,784.612,868.14
Payout Ratio64.09%69.27%74.45%79.63%84.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,876.512,007.992,136.642,262.532,385.682,506.152,653.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,855.341,874.271,893.20
Year 2 PV (M)1,824.131,861.551,899.34
Year 3 PV (M)1,784.761,839.951,896.27
Year 4 PV (M)1,738.841,810.911,885.19
Year 5 PV (M)1,687.781,775.661,867.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,214.8845,465.1847,808.26
Equity Value (M)52,105.7254,627.5257,249.44
Shares Outstanding (M)3,725.103,725.103,725.10
Fair Value$13.99$14.66$15.37
Upside / Downside56.46%64.03%71.91%

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