Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lu Thai Textile Co., Ltd. (000726.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.00 - $5.56$4.78
Multi-Stage$7.82 - $8.61$8.21
Blended Fair Value$6.50
Current Price$6.66
Upside-2.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.51%-2.74%0.330.160.130.090.160.570.570.570.540.55
YoY Growth--108.99%23.08%34.93%-39.53%-72.65%0.80%-0.98%5.45%-1.99%28.00%
Dividend Yield--5.42%2.50%1.57%1.48%2.37%6.63%5.23%5.49%4.23%4.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)625.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)257.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)367.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)125.0378.1446.89
Cash Retained (M)367.87367.87367.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-125.03-78.14-46.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)242.84289.73320.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)892.70892.70892.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-4.74%-3.74%-2.74%
Fair Value$4.00$4.78$5.56
Upside / Downside-39.90%-28.19%-16.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)625.14601.79579.31557.67536.84516.78532.29
Payout Ratio41.15%50.92%60.69%70.46%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)257.27306.45351.60392.94430.71465.11492.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-4.74%-3.74%-2.74%
Year 1 PV (M)279.26282.19285.12
Year 2 PV (M)291.97298.13304.35
Year 3 PV (M)297.34306.81316.47
Year 4 PV (M)297.00309.67322.74
Year 5 PV (M)292.26307.92324.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,526.605,822.826,131.61
Equity Value (M)6,984.427,327.537,684.54
Shares Outstanding (M)892.70892.70892.70
Fair Value$7.82$8.21$8.61
Upside / Downside17.48%23.25%29.25%

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