Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Changhong Meiling Co., Ltd. (000521.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.39 - $36.39$21.68
Multi-Stage$10.35 - $11.29$10.81
Blended Fair Value$16.24
Current Price$7.13
Upside127.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.92%17.89%0.320.110.080.100.110.140.120.100.070.05
YoY Growth--185.03%38.57%-16.09%-11.69%-22.10%13.69%23.44%54.45%23.53%-15.06%
Dividend Yield--3.89%1.23%1.51%2.63%2.98%4.38%3.09%2.32%0.92%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)657.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)359.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)298.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)131.4582.1549.29
Cash Retained (M)298.16298.16298.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-131.45-82.15-49.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)166.72216.01248.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,029.581,029.581,029.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.39$21.68$36.39
Upside / Downside101.81%204.01%410.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)657.24699.96745.45793.91845.51900.47927.48
Payout Ratio54.63%61.71%68.78%75.85%82.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)359.07431.92512.72602.21701.16810.42857.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)391.66395.37399.08
Year 2 PV (M)421.59429.62437.73
Year 3 PV (M)449.01461.90475.03
Year 4 PV (M)474.06492.29511.04
Year 5 PV (M)496.86520.85545.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,423.228,830.069,252.48
Equity Value (M)10,656.3911,130.0911,621.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,029.581,029.581,029.58
Fair Value$10.35$10.81$11.29
Upside / Downside45.16%51.62%58.31%

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