Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5,355.55 - $15,405.34 | $8,390.66 |
| Multi-Stage | $5,787.61 - $6,330.40 | $6,053.98 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7,222.32 | |
| Current Price | $2,780.00 | |
| Upside | 159.80% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.32% | 8.51% | 178.50 | 167.60 | 149.97 | 126.00 | 113.03 | 109.22 | 134.13 | 97.84 | 97.56 | 73.88 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 6.50% | 11.76% | 19.02% | 11.48% | 3.49% | -18.57% | 37.09% | 0.29% | 32.04% | -6.31% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.41% | 4.77% | 3.69% | 2.75% | 3.30% | 3.46% | 3.41% | 2.72% | 2.36% | 2.22% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 21,758,000.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 21,047,000.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 711,000.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 4,351,600.00 | 2,719,750.00 | 1,631,850.00 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 711,000.00 | 711,000.00 | 711,000.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -4,351,600.00 | -2,719,750.00 | -1,631,850.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -3,640,600.00 | -2,008,750.00 | -920,850.00 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 99,061.78 | 99,061.78 | 99,061.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -36.75 | -20.28 | -9.30 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 212.46 | 212.46 | 212.46 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -36.75 | -20.28 | -9.30 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 175.71 | 192.19 | 203.17 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | 3.27% | 4.27% | 5.27% |
| Fair Value | $5,355.55 | $8,390.66 | $15,405.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 92.65% | 201.82% | 454.15% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 21,758,000.00 | 22,687,996.94 | 23,657,744.52 | 24,668,941.78 | 25,723,360.41 | 26,822,847.79 | 27,627,533.22 |
| Payout Ratio | 96.73% | 95.39% | 94.04% | 92.69% | 91.35% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 21,047,000.00 | 21,641,124.92 | 22,247,587.24 | 22,866,356.20 | 23,497,375.85 | 24,140,563.01 | 25,555,468.23 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | 3.27% | 4.27% | 5.27% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 20,094,742.71 | 20,289,319.16 | 20,483,895.62 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 19,181,746.81 | 19,555,017.20 | 19,931,884.54 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 18,306,478.84 | 18,843,427.03 | 19,390,773.38 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 17,467,463.13 | 18,153,899.69 | 18,860,371.91 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 16,663,279.69 | 17,485,803.93 | 18,340,493.00 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 481,617,037.93 | 505,390,370.40 | 530,093,359.48 |
| Equity Value (M) | 573,330,749.11 | 599,717,837.42 | 627,100,777.94 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 99,061.78 | 99,061.78 | 99,061.78 |
| Fair Value | $5,787.61 | $6,053.98 | $6,330.40 |
| Upside / Downside | 108.19% | 117.77% | 127.71% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. | 3.53% | $1.65 | 54.01% |
| F-PC | Ford Motor Company 6% Notes due | 3.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| TECTP | Tectonic Financial, Inc. | 3.53% | $0.38 | 79.28% |
| AMFCX | American Funds American Mutual Fund | 3.52% | $2.06 | 90.87% |
| CRC | California Resources Corporation | 3.52% | $1.64 | 35.94% |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | 3.51% | $2.14 | 46.13% |
| GIC | Global Industrial Company | 3.51% | $1.03 | 58.36% |
| 0R0G.L | Mondelez International, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.89 | 69.92% |
| DCP | DCP Midstream, LP | 3.50% | $1.46 | 34.00% |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.48 | 70.35% |
| WSO | Watsco, Inc. | 3.50% | $12.16 | 83.88% |
| 0QYY.L | Harley-Davidson, Inc. | 3.49% | $0.72 | 17.57% |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial Corporation | 3.49% | $1.97 | 52.13% |
| TRST | TrustCo Bank Corp NY | 3.49% | $1.44 | 48.14% |
| OMC | Omnicom Group Inc. | 3.47% | $2.83 | 41.26% |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. | 3.47% | $0.55 | 61.73% |
| UTL | Unitil Corporation | 3.47% | $1.70 | 61.75% |
| BF-A | Brown-Forman Corporation | 3.45% | $0.91 | 52.84% |
| COFS | ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.00 | 70.38% |
| FCBP | First Choice Bancorp | 3.45% | $1.00 | 34.34% |
| NXST | Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | 3.45% | $7.20 | 42.75% |
| STBA | S&T Bancorp, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.35 | 29.75% |
| VABK | Virginia National Bankshares Corporation | 3.45% | $1.37 | 55.94% |
| F-PB | Ford Motor Company 6.20% Notes | 3.44% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| 0K3B.L | The Mosaic Company | 3.43% | $0.87 | 22.53% |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial Corp. | 3.43% | $1.07 | 43.87% |
| CTBI | Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.93 | 37.41% |
| IIIN | Insteel Industries, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.11 | 53.05% |
| JJSF | J&J Snack Foods Corp. | 3.43% | $3.11 | 92.62% |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial Corporation | 3.43% | $2.49 | 42.22% |
| ALRS | Alerus Financial Corporation | 3.41% | $0.77 | 39.09% |
| CNXC | Concentrix Corporation | 3.41% | $1.40 | 28.16% |
| FBP | First BanCorp. | 3.41% | $0.71 | 34.06% |
| GLO | Clough Global Opportunities Fund | 3.41% | $0.19 | 15.90% |
| OPBK | OP Bancorp | 3.41% | $0.48 | 30.19% |
| PHX | PHX Minerals Inc. | 3.39% | $0.15 | 81.44% |
| WHG | Westwood Holdings Group, Inc. | 3.39% | $0.60 | 73.76% |
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival, Inc. | 3.38% | $0.59 | 28.17% |
| OGS | ONE Gas, Inc. | 3.37% | $2.61 | 61.93% |
| VALU | Value Line, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.25 | 55.36% |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.30 | 54.79% |
| AVNT | Avient Corporation | 3.35% | $1.06 | 86.14% |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.06 | 53.00% |
| VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.15 | 48.89% |
| WAFD | WaFd, Inc. | 3.35% | $1.08 | 37.44% |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.32 | 41.44% |
| PFG | Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.99 | 43.04% |
| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | 3.33% | $1.31 | 60.97% |
| NFYS | Enphys Acquisition Corp. | 3.33% | $0.37 | 68.70% |
| KMPR | Kemper Corporation | 3.32% | $1.31 | 32.45% |