Definitive Analysis
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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.84 - $124.24$71.62
Multi-Stage$32.04 - $35.00$33.49
Blended Fair Value$52.55
Current Price$40.00
Upside31.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.81%0.00%0.470.390.390.392.210.270.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.11%0.85%0.24%-82.38%716.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.18%0.99%2.44%4.26%15.52%1.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.295.813.48
Cash Retained (M)35.4435.4435.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.29-5.81-3.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.1529.6331.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.2623.2623.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.271.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.271.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.601.751.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.84$71.62$124.24
Upside / Downside17.09%79.04%210.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.4449.4652.6856.1059.7563.6365.54
Payout Ratio23.70%36.96%50.22%63.48%76.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.0118.2826.4635.6145.8557.2760.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16.6016.7616.92
Year 2 PV (M)21.8122.2322.65
Year 3 PV (M)26.6627.4328.21
Year 4 PV (M)31.1732.3733.60
Year 5 PV (M)35.3537.0538.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)613.62643.26674.03
Equity Value (M)745.21779.09814.23
Shares Outstanding (M)23.2623.2623.26
Fair Value$32.04$33.49$35.00
Upside / Downside-19.91%-16.27%-12.49%

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