Definitive Analysis
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Bank of the James Financial Group, Inc. (BOTJ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.66 - $70.73$40.77
Multi-Stage$18.30 - $19.99$19.13
Blended Fair Value$29.95
Current Price$15.60
Upside91.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.20%13.64%0.400.320.300.280.270.270.230.230.230.18
YoY Growth--24.44%7.03%7.40%4.61%-0.90%16.76%0.00%0.00%30.76%58.70%
Dividend Yield--2.71%3.15%2.86%1.88%2.09%3.39%1.83%1.66%1.74%1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.030.650.39
Cash Retained (M)3.803.803.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.03-0.65-0.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.773.153.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.544.544.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.690.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.690.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.910.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.66$40.77$70.73
Upside / Downside70.92%161.35%353.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.165.505.866.246.647.087.29
Payout Ratio26.41%39.13%51.85%64.57%77.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.362.153.044.035.136.376.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1.951.971.99
Year 2 PV (M)2.502.552.60
Year 3 PV (M)3.023.103.19
Year 4 PV (M)3.493.623.76
Year 5 PV (M)3.934.124.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)68.2371.5274.94
Equity Value (M)83.1286.8990.80
Shares Outstanding (M)4.544.544.54
Fair Value$18.30$19.13$19.99
Upside / Downside17.28%22.60%28.12%

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