Definitive Analysis
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Amalgamated Financial Corp. (AMAL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.00 - $206.92$119.28
Multi-Stage$52.90 - $57.82$55.31
Blended Fair Value$87.30
Current Price$27.15
Upside221.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.39%0.00%0.460.400.360.320.320.270.060.010.000.00
YoY Growth--15.41%10.01%12.36%-0.09%20.31%330.33%389.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.73%2.06%1.80%1.96%2.49%0.41%0.10%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.4612.797.67
Cash Retained (M)85.6085.6085.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.46-12.79-7.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.1472.8177.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.7630.7630.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.122.372.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.122.372.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.662.913.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$78.00$119.28$206.92
Upside / Downside187.31%339.33%662.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.30108.95116.03123.57131.60140.16144.36
Payout Ratio16.32%31.06%45.79%60.53%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.7033.8453.1374.8099.05126.14133.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.7231.0131.31
Year 2 PV (M)43.8144.6445.48
Year 3 PV (M)55.9957.6059.24
Year 4 PV (M)67.3369.9272.58
Year 5 PV (M)77.8581.6185.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,351.551,416.831,484.61
Equity Value (M)1,627.261,701.621,778.74
Shares Outstanding (M)30.7630.7630.76
Fair Value$52.90$55.31$57.82
Upside / Downside94.83%103.74%112.97%

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