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Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. (AJRD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.74 - $15.64$12.41
Multi-Stage$11.78 - $12.92$12.34
Blended Fair Value$12.37
Current Price$56.17
Upside-77.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.035.220.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%13.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.809.255.55
Cash Retained (M)72.0072.0072.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.80-9.25-5.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.2062.7566.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)82.0882.0882.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.790.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.57%2.57%3.57%
Fair Value$9.74$12.41$15.64
Upside / Downside-82.66%-77.91%-72.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.0075.9177.8679.8681.9284.0386.55
Payout Ratio2.70%20.16%37.62%55.08%72.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.0015.3029.2943.9959.4375.6380.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.57%2.57%3.57%
Year 1 PV (M)13.8914.0314.16
Year 2 PV (M)24.1324.6125.09
Year 3 PV (M)32.9033.8834.88
Year 4 PV (M)40.3441.9543.61
Year 5 PV (M)46.5948.9351.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)808.85849.46891.68
Equity Value (M)966.701,012.861,060.79
Shares Outstanding (M)82.0882.0882.08
Fair Value$11.78$12.34$12.92
Upside / Downside-79.03%-78.03%-76.99%

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