Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ActBlue Co., Ltd. (300816.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.25 - $168.43$54.76
Multi-Stage$79.50 - $87.85$83.59
Blended Fair Value$69.18
Current Price$37.18
Upside86.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.14%0.00%0.230.230.400.430.290.030.470.040.000.02
YoY Growth---1.06%-42.44%-6.72%48.06%776.74%-92.97%1,178.54%8,356.59%-97.88%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.72%1.10%1.20%1.30%0.34%0.09%1.60%0.12%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.489.055.43
Cash Retained (M)49.3549.3549.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.48-9.05-5.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.8740.3043.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.5279.5279.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.84
WACC / Discount Rate0.44%0.44%0.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$29.25$54.76$168.43
Upside / Downside-21.32%47.29%353.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.4071.6770.9670.2569.5468.8570.91
Payout Ratio31.83%43.46%55.10%66.73%78.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.0431.1539.0946.8854.5061.9665.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.44%0.44%0.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.7031.0131.33
Year 2 PV (M)37.9738.7539.54
Year 3 PV (M)44.8846.2647.68
Year 4 PV (M)51.4253.5555.75
Year 5 PV (M)57.6260.6263.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,099.466,417.086,747.79
Equity Value (M)6,322.056,647.286,985.82
Shares Outstanding (M)79.5279.5279.52
Fair Value$79.50$83.59$87.85
Upside / Downside113.83%124.83%136.28%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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