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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (0HQU.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.46 - $210.93$156.63
Multi-Stage$120.20 - $131.54$125.77
Blended Fair Value$141.20
Current Price$89.70
Upside57.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.55%3.59%2.181.871.841.561.551.591.681.681.681.69
YoY Growth--17.04%1.63%17.69%0.78%-2.64%-5.36%0.00%0.00%-0.71%10.29%
Dividend Yield--2.79%2.24%2.53%1.51%3.41%5.85%4.02%4.45%5.72%5.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,379.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)334.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,045.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)275.80172.38103.43
Cash Retained (M)1,045.001,045.001,045.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-275.80-172.38-103.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)769.20872.63941.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)166.65166.65166.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.625.245.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.625.245.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.627.247.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Fair Value$117.46$156.63$210.93
Upside / Downside30.95%74.62%135.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,379.001,437.991,499.501,563.641,630.531,700.281,751.29
Payout Ratio24.22%37.38%50.53%63.69%76.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)334.00537.47757.73995.861,252.971,530.251,619.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Year 1 PV (M)487.92492.65497.37
Year 2 PV (M)624.47636.62648.89
Year 3 PV (M)745.06766.91789.19
Year 4 PV (M)851.01884.45918.87
Year 5 PV (M)943.53990.101,038.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,379.6217,188.1218,028.23
Equity Value (M)20,031.6120,958.8521,921.04
Shares Outstanding (M)166.65166.65166.65
Fair Value$120.20$125.77$131.54
Upside / Downside34.00%40.21%46.64%

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