Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $201,724.47 - $326,183.85 | $257,719.77 |
| Multi-Stage | $421,755.60 - $464,585.22 | $442,750.26 |
| Blended Fair Value | $350,235.02 | |
| Current Price | $61,000.00 | |
| Upside | 474.16% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 25.78% | 11.69% | 4,657.73 | 11,271.35 | 2,218.94 | 1,972.39 | 1,725.84 | 1,479.29 | 1,751.36 | 2,965.09 | 1,467.40 | 1,476.45 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -58.68% | 407.96% | 12.50% | 14.29% | 16.67% | -15.53% | -40.93% | 102.06% | -0.61% | -4.28% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 10.14% | 29.28% | 6.98% | 5.45% | 5.12% | 5.05% | 4.27% | 6.99% | 3.96% | 3.99% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 81,528.02 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 12,843.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 68,685.02 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 16,305.60 | 10,191.00 | 6,114.60 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 68,685.02 | 68,685.02 | 68,685.02 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -16,305.60 | -10,191.00 | -6,114.60 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 52,379.41 | 58,494.01 | 62,570.41 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 12,109.45 | 13,523.06 | 14,465.48 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2,969.14 | 2,969.14 | 2,969.14 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 12,109.45 | 13,523.06 | 14,465.48 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 15,078.58 | 16,492.20 | 17,434.61 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -1.08% | -0.08% | 0.92% |
| Fair Value | $201,724.47 | $257,719.77 | $326,183.85 |
| Upside / Downside | 230.70% | 322.49% | 434.73% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 81,528.02 | 81,466.15 | 81,404.34 | 81,342.57 | 81,280.85 | 81,219.18 | 83,655.75 |
| Payout Ratio | 15.75% | 30.60% | 45.45% | 60.30% | 75.15% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 12,843.00 | 24,930.51 | 36,999.67 | 49,050.50 | 61,083.03 | 73,097.26 | 77,381.57 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -1.08% | -0.08% | 0.92% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 23,214.22 | 23,448.88 | 23,683.55 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 32,080.68 | 32,732.55 | 33,390.98 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 39,601.53 | 40,814.68 | 42,052.36 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 45,921.06 | 47,806.23 | 49,748.85 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 51,169.99 | 53,809.14 | 56,556.07 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,632,316.35 | 1,716,504.76 | 1,804,131.58 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,824,303.83 | 1,915,116.24 | 2,009,563.38 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| Fair Value | $421,755.60 | $442,750.26 | $464,585.22 |
| Upside / Downside | 591.40% | 625.82% | 661.62% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. | 3.53% | $1.65 | 54.01% |
| F-PC | Ford Motor Company 6% Notes due | 3.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| TECTP | Tectonic Financial, Inc. | 3.53% | $0.38 | 79.28% |
| AMFCX | American Funds American Mutual Fund | 3.52% | $2.06 | 90.87% |
| CRC | California Resources Corporation | 3.52% | $1.64 | 35.94% |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | 3.51% | $2.14 | 46.13% |
| GIC | Global Industrial Company | 3.51% | $1.03 | 58.36% |
| 0R0G.L | Mondelez International, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.89 | 69.92% |
| DCP | DCP Midstream, LP | 3.50% | $1.46 | 34.00% |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.48 | 70.35% |
| WSO | Watsco, Inc. | 3.50% | $12.16 | 83.88% |
| 0QYY.L | Harley-Davidson, Inc. | 3.49% | $0.72 | 17.57% |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial Corporation | 3.49% | $1.97 | 52.13% |
| TRST | TrustCo Bank Corp NY | 3.49% | $1.44 | 48.14% |
| OMC | Omnicom Group Inc. | 3.47% | $2.83 | 41.26% |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. | 3.47% | $0.55 | 61.73% |
| UTL | Unitil Corporation | 3.47% | $1.70 | 61.75% |
| BF-A | Brown-Forman Corporation | 3.45% | $0.91 | 52.84% |
| COFS | ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.00 | 70.38% |
| FCBP | First Choice Bancorp | 3.45% | $1.00 | 34.34% |
| NXST | Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | 3.45% | $7.20 | 42.75% |
| STBA | S&T Bancorp, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.35 | 29.75% |
| VABK | Virginia National Bankshares Corporation | 3.45% | $1.37 | 55.94% |
| F-PB | Ford Motor Company 6.20% Notes | 3.44% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| 0K3B.L | The Mosaic Company | 3.43% | $0.87 | 22.53% |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial Corp. | 3.43% | $1.07 | 43.87% |
| CTBI | Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.93 | 37.41% |
| IIIN | Insteel Industries, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.11 | 53.05% |
| JJSF | J&J Snack Foods Corp. | 3.43% | $3.11 | 92.62% |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial Corporation | 3.43% | $2.49 | 42.22% |
| ALRS | Alerus Financial Corporation | 3.41% | $0.77 | 39.09% |
| CNXC | Concentrix Corporation | 3.41% | $1.40 | 28.16% |
| FBP | First BanCorp. | 3.41% | $0.71 | 34.06% |
| GLO | Clough Global Opportunities Fund | 3.41% | $0.19 | 15.90% |
| OPBK | OP Bancorp | 3.41% | $0.48 | 30.19% |
| PHX | PHX Minerals Inc. | 3.39% | $0.15 | 81.44% |
| WHG | Westwood Holdings Group, Inc. | 3.39% | $0.60 | 73.76% |
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival, Inc. | 3.38% | $0.59 | 28.17% |
| OGS | ONE Gas, Inc. | 3.37% | $2.61 | 61.93% |
| VALU | Value Line, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.25 | 55.36% |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.30 | 54.79% |
| AVNT | Avient Corporation | 3.35% | $1.06 | 86.14% |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.06 | 53.00% |
| VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.15 | 48.89% |
| WAFD | WaFd, Inc. | 3.35% | $1.08 | 37.44% |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.32 | 41.44% |
| PFG | Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.99 | 43.04% |
| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | 3.33% | $1.31 | 60.97% |
| NFYS | Enphys Acquisition Corp. | 3.33% | $0.37 | 68.70% |
| KMPR | Kemper Corporation | 3.32% | $1.31 | 32.45% |