Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $874.61 - $1,946.99 | $1,262.94 |
| Multi-Stage | $632.67 - $690.88 | $661.25 |
| Blended Fair Value | $962.09 | |
| Current Price | $1,295.00 | |
| Upside | -25.71% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 21.54% | 15.76% | 10.53 | 21.03 | 10.48 | 12.26 | 10.22 | 3.97 | 3.57 | 7.15 | 0.00 | 3.14 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -49.90% | 100.55% | -14.48% | 20.01% | 157.26% | 11.11% | -50.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 28.96% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.10% | 2.91% | 1.46% | 2.76% | 2.67% | 1.44% | 0.63% | 1.25% | 0.00% | 0.55% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,579.75 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 377.98 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,201.78 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 315.95 | 197.47 | 118.48 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,201.78 | 1,201.78 | 1,201.78 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -315.95 | -197.47 | -118.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 885.82 | 1,004.31 | 1,083.29 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 35.88 | 35.88 | 35.88 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 24.69 | 27.99 | 30.19 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 10.53 | 10.53 | 10.53 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 24.69 | 27.99 | 30.19 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 35.22 | 38.52 | 40.72 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.75% | 9.75% | 9.75% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $874.61 | $1,262.94 | $1,946.99 |
| Upside / Downside | -32.46% | -2.48% | 50.35% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,579.75 | 1,682.44 | 1,791.80 | 1,908.26 | 2,032.30 | 2,164.40 | 2,229.33 |
| Payout Ratio | 23.93% | 37.14% | 50.36% | 63.57% | 76.79% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 377.98 | 624.88 | 902.27 | 1,213.09 | 1,560.51 | 1,947.96 | 2,062.13 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.75% | 9.75% | 9.75% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 564.02 | 569.37 | 574.72 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 735.10 | 749.10 | 763.24 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 892.09 | 917.69 | 943.79 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,035.81 | 1,075.65 | 1,116.62 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,167.08 | 1,223.45 | 1,281.98 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 18,307.44 | 19,191.70 | 20,109.80 |
| Equity Value (M) | 22,701.55 | 23,726.96 | 24,790.14 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 35.88 | 35.88 | 35.88 |
| Fair Value | $632.67 | $661.25 | $690.88 |
| Upside / Downside | -51.15% | -48.94% | -46.65% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. | 3.53% | $1.65 | 54.01% |
| F-PC | Ford Motor Company 6% Notes due | 3.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| TECTP | Tectonic Financial, Inc. | 3.53% | $0.38 | 79.28% |
| AMFCX | American Funds American Mutual Fund | 3.52% | $2.06 | 90.87% |
| CRC | California Resources Corporation | 3.52% | $1.64 | 35.94% |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | 3.51% | $2.14 | 46.13% |
| GIC | Global Industrial Company | 3.51% | $1.03 | 58.36% |
| 0R0G.L | Mondelez International, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.89 | 69.92% |
| DCP | DCP Midstream, LP | 3.50% | $1.46 | 34.00% |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.48 | 70.35% |
| WSO | Watsco, Inc. | 3.50% | $12.16 | 83.88% |
| 0QYY.L | Harley-Davidson, Inc. | 3.49% | $0.72 | 17.57% |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial Corporation | 3.49% | $1.97 | 52.13% |
| TRST | TrustCo Bank Corp NY | 3.49% | $1.44 | 48.14% |
| OMC | Omnicom Group Inc. | 3.47% | $2.83 | 41.26% |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. | 3.47% | $0.55 | 61.73% |
| UTL | Unitil Corporation | 3.47% | $1.70 | 61.75% |
| BF-A | Brown-Forman Corporation | 3.45% | $0.91 | 52.84% |
| COFS | ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.00 | 70.38% |
| FCBP | First Choice Bancorp | 3.45% | $1.00 | 34.34% |
| NXST | Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | 3.45% | $7.20 | 42.75% |
| STBA | S&T Bancorp, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.35 | 29.75% |
| VABK | Virginia National Bankshares Corporation | 3.45% | $1.37 | 55.94% |
| F-PB | Ford Motor Company 6.20% Notes | 3.44% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| 0K3B.L | The Mosaic Company | 3.43% | $0.87 | 22.53% |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial Corp. | 3.43% | $1.07 | 43.87% |
| CTBI | Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.93 | 37.41% |
| IIIN | Insteel Industries, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.11 | 53.05% |
| JJSF | J&J Snack Foods Corp. | 3.43% | $3.11 | 92.62% |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial Corporation | 3.43% | $2.49 | 42.22% |
| ALRS | Alerus Financial Corporation | 3.41% | $0.77 | 39.09% |
| CNXC | Concentrix Corporation | 3.41% | $1.40 | 28.16% |
| FBP | First BanCorp. | 3.41% | $0.71 | 34.06% |
| GLO | Clough Global Opportunities Fund | 3.41% | $0.19 | 15.90% |
| OPBK | OP Bancorp | 3.41% | $0.48 | 30.19% |
| PHX | PHX Minerals Inc. | 3.39% | $0.15 | 81.44% |
| WHG | Westwood Holdings Group, Inc. | 3.39% | $0.60 | 73.76% |
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival, Inc. | 3.38% | $0.59 | 28.17% |
| OGS | ONE Gas, Inc. | 3.37% | $2.61 | 61.93% |
| VALU | Value Line, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.25 | 55.36% |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.30 | 54.79% |
| AVNT | Avient Corporation | 3.35% | $1.06 | 86.14% |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.06 | 53.00% |
| VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.15 | 48.89% |
| WAFD | WaFd, Inc. | 3.35% | $1.08 | 37.44% |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.32 | 41.44% |
| PFG | Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.99 | 43.04% |
| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | 3.33% | $1.31 | 60.97% |
| NFYS | Enphys Acquisition Corp. | 3.33% | $0.37 | 68.70% |
| KMPR | Kemper Corporation | 3.32% | $1.31 | 32.45% |