Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product Co., Ltd. (300952.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.38 - $125.34$117.46
Multi-Stage$23.88 - $26.16$25.00
Blended Fair Value$71.23
Current Price$30.70
Upside132.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS85.33%0.00%0.270.200.110.210.010.010.211.000.000.00
YoY Growth--39.55%74.38%-47.84%1,401.64%14.71%-94.02%-79.15%67,884.69%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.99%0.59%1.21%0.04%0.02%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8913.067.83
Cash Retained (M)72.9572.9572.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.89-13.06-7.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.0659.9065.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)165.74165.74165.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate5.72%5.72%5.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$106.38$117.46$125.34
Upside / Downside246.53%282.61%308.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.45111.24118.47126.18134.38143.11147.40
Payout Ratio30.16%42.13%54.09%66.06%78.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.5046.8664.0983.35104.86128.80136.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.72%5.72%5.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.9144.3244.74
Year 2 PV (M)56.2657.3458.42
Year 3 PV (M)68.5770.5472.54
Year 4 PV (M)80.8283.9387.12
Year 5 PV (M)93.0297.51102.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,615.343,789.973,971.27
Equity Value (M)3,957.924,143.604,336.27
Shares Outstanding (M)165.74165.74165.74
Fair Value$23.88$25.00$26.16
Upside / Downside-22.21%-18.56%-14.78%

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