Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $79.74 - $129.71 | $102.13 |
| Multi-Stage | $97.58 - $106.85 | $102.13 |
| Blended Fair Value | $102.13 | |
| Current Price | $138.04 | |
| Upside | -26.02% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.19% | 0.95% | 2.25 | 2.22 | 2.30 | 2.08 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 2.09 | 2.09 | 2.07 | 2.06 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 1.36% | -3.56% | 10.45% | -1.66% | -0.08% | 1.38% | 0.01% | 0.88% | 0.34% | 0.91% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.18% | 1.12% | 1.49% | 1.39% | 2.65% | 5.94% | 3.58% | 3.42% | 3.47% | 4.34% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,653.03 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 513.16 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,139.87 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 330.61 | 206.63 | 123.98 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,139.87 | 1,139.87 | 1,139.87 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -330.61 | -206.63 | -123.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 809.26 | 933.24 | 1,015.89 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 232.35 | 232.35 | 232.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3.48 | 4.02 | 4.37 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.21 | 2.21 | 2.21 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3.48 | 4.02 | 4.37 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.69 | 6.23 | 6.58 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.83% | 2.83% | 3.83% |
| Fair Value | $79.74 | $102.13 | $129.71 |
| Upside / Downside | -42.23% | -26.02% | -6.04% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,653.03 | 1,699.81 | 1,747.92 | 1,797.39 | 1,848.25 | 1,900.56 | 1,957.58 |
| Payout Ratio | 31.04% | 42.83% | 54.63% | 66.42% | 78.21% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 513.16 | 728.12 | 954.82 | 1,193.78 | 1,445.50 | 1,710.50 | 1,810.76 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.83% | 2.83% | 3.83% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 660.91 | 667.40 | 673.89 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 786.69 | 802.21 | 817.89 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 892.77 | 919.33 | 946.42 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 981.24 | 1,020.35 | 1,060.62 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,053.95 | 1,106.73 | 1,161.60 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 18,296.53 | 19,212.73 | 20,165.28 |
| Equity Value (M) | 22,672.08 | 23,728.75 | 24,825.70 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 232.35 | 232.35 | 232.35 |
| Fair Value | $97.58 | $102.13 | $106.85 |
| Upside / Downside | -29.31% | -26.02% | -22.60% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. | 3.53% | $1.65 | 54.01% |
| F-PC | Ford Motor Company 6% Notes due | 3.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| TECTP | Tectonic Financial, Inc. | 3.53% | $0.38 | 79.28% |
| AMFCX | American Funds American Mutual Fund | 3.52% | $2.06 | 90.87% |
| CRC | California Resources Corporation | 3.52% | $1.64 | 35.94% |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | 3.51% | $2.14 | 46.13% |
| GIC | Global Industrial Company | 3.51% | $1.03 | 58.36% |
| 0R0G.L | Mondelez International, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.89 | 69.92% |
| DCP | DCP Midstream, LP | 3.50% | $1.46 | 34.00% |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.48 | 70.35% |
| WSO | Watsco, Inc. | 3.50% | $12.16 | 83.88% |
| 0QYY.L | Harley-Davidson, Inc. | 3.49% | $0.72 | 17.57% |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial Corporation | 3.49% | $1.97 | 52.13% |
| TRST | TrustCo Bank Corp NY | 3.49% | $1.44 | 48.14% |
| OMC | Omnicom Group Inc. | 3.47% | $2.83 | 41.26% |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. | 3.47% | $0.55 | 61.73% |
| UTL | Unitil Corporation | 3.47% | $1.70 | 61.75% |
| BF-A | Brown-Forman Corporation | 3.45% | $0.91 | 52.84% |
| COFS | ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.00 | 70.38% |
| FCBP | First Choice Bancorp | 3.45% | $1.00 | 34.34% |
| NXST | Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | 3.45% | $7.20 | 42.75% |
| STBA | S&T Bancorp, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.35 | 29.75% |
| VABK | Virginia National Bankshares Corporation | 3.45% | $1.37 | 55.94% |
| F-PB | Ford Motor Company 6.20% Notes | 3.44% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| 0K3B.L | The Mosaic Company | 3.43% | $0.87 | 22.53% |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial Corp. | 3.43% | $1.07 | 43.87% |
| CTBI | Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.93 | 37.41% |
| IIIN | Insteel Industries, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.11 | 53.05% |
| JJSF | J&J Snack Foods Corp. | 3.43% | $3.11 | 92.62% |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial Corporation | 3.43% | $2.49 | 42.22% |
| ALRS | Alerus Financial Corporation | 3.41% | $0.77 | 39.09% |
| CNXC | Concentrix Corporation | 3.41% | $1.40 | 28.16% |
| FBP | First BanCorp. | 3.41% | $0.71 | 34.06% |
| GLO | Clough Global Opportunities Fund | 3.41% | $0.19 | 15.90% |
| OPBK | OP Bancorp | 3.41% | $0.48 | 30.19% |
| PHX | PHX Minerals Inc. | 3.39% | $0.15 | 81.44% |
| WHG | Westwood Holdings Group, Inc. | 3.39% | $0.60 | 73.76% |
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival, Inc. | 3.38% | $0.59 | 28.17% |
| OGS | ONE Gas, Inc. | 3.37% | $2.61 | 61.93% |
| VALU | Value Line, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.25 | 55.36% |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.30 | 54.79% |
| AVNT | Avient Corporation | 3.35% | $1.06 | 86.14% |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.06 | 53.00% |
| VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.15 | 48.89% |
| WAFD | WaFd, Inc. | 3.35% | $1.08 | 37.44% |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.32 | 41.44% |
| PFG | Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.99 | 43.04% |
| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | 3.33% | $1.31 | 60.97% |
| NFYS | Enphys Acquisition Corp. | 3.33% | $0.37 | 68.70% |
| KMPR | Kemper Corporation | 3.32% | $1.31 | 32.45% |