Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $520,360.79 - $1,585,774.03 | $1,486,057.09 |
| Multi-Stage | $233,945.04 - $256,180.58 | $244,857.70 |
| Blended Fair Value | $865,457.39 | |
| Current Price | $98,500.00 | |
| Upside | 778.64% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -17.73% | -2.30% | 1,363.73 | 1,313.22 | 1,262.57 | 1,212.07 | 0.00 | 3,618.34 | 3,214.20 | 5,696.73 | 2,896.04 | 2,065.17 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 3.85% | 4.01% | 4.17% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 12.57% | -43.58% | 96.71% | 40.23% | 20.01% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.68% | 2.30% | 2.40% | 1.77% | 0.00% | 6.26% | 3.37% | 6.34% | 3.01% | 2.14% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 574,642.38 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 189,121.02 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 385,521.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 114,928.48 | 71,830.30 | 43,098.18 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 385,521.36 | 385,521.36 | 385,521.36 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -114,928.48 | -71,830.30 | -43,098.18 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 270,592.88 | 313,691.06 | 342,423.18 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 71.83 | 71.83 | 71.83 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3,766.96 | 4,366.93 | 4,766.92 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2,632.78 | 2,632.78 | 2,632.78 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3,766.96 | 4,366.93 | 4,766.92 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6,399.74 | 6,999.71 | 7,399.70 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.44% | 6.44% | 6.44% |
| Growth Rate | 5.15% | 6.15% | 7.15% |
| Fair Value | $520,360.79 | $1,486,057.09 | $1,585,774.03 |
| Upside / Downside | 428.29% | 1,408.69% | 1,509.92% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 574,642.38 | 609,990.34 | 647,512.67 | 687,343.10 | 729,623.62 | 774,504.94 | 797,740.09 |
| Payout Ratio | 32.91% | 44.33% | 55.75% | 67.16% | 78.58% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 189,121.02 | 270,401.80 | 360,966.61 | 461,650.09 | 573,354.41 | 697,054.45 | 737,909.59 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.44% | 6.44% | 6.44% |
| Growth Rate | 5.15% | 6.15% | 7.15% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 251,637.64 | 254,030.74 | 256,423.84 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 312,607.29 | 318,581.42 | 324,612.09 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 372,058.32 | 382,774.53 | 393,694.56 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 430,018.65 | 446,611.57 | 463,680.13 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 486,515.71 | 510,094.01 | 534,577.72 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 14,952,194.86 | 15,676,831.96 | 16,429,295.45 |
| Equity Value (M) | 16,805,032.46 | 17,588,924.23 | 18,402,283.80 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 71.83 | 71.83 | 71.83 |
| Fair Value | $233,945.04 | $244,857.70 | $256,180.58 |
| Upside / Downside | 137.51% | 148.59% | 160.08% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. | 3.53% | $1.65 | 54.01% |
| F-PC | Ford Motor Company 6% Notes due | 3.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| TECTP | Tectonic Financial, Inc. | 3.53% | $0.38 | 79.28% |
| AMFCX | American Funds American Mutual Fund | 3.52% | $2.06 | 90.87% |
| CRC | California Resources Corporation | 3.52% | $1.64 | 35.94% |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | 3.51% | $2.14 | 46.13% |
| GIC | Global Industrial Company | 3.51% | $1.03 | 58.36% |
| 0R0G.L | Mondelez International, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.89 | 69.92% |
| DCP | DCP Midstream, LP | 3.50% | $1.46 | 34.00% |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.48 | 70.35% |
| WSO | Watsco, Inc. | 3.50% | $12.16 | 83.88% |
| 0QYY.L | Harley-Davidson, Inc. | 3.49% | $0.72 | 17.57% |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial Corporation | 3.49% | $1.97 | 52.13% |
| TRST | TrustCo Bank Corp NY | 3.49% | $1.44 | 48.14% |
| OMC | Omnicom Group Inc. | 3.47% | $2.83 | 41.26% |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. | 3.47% | $0.55 | 61.73% |
| UTL | Unitil Corporation | 3.47% | $1.70 | 61.75% |
| BF-A | Brown-Forman Corporation | 3.45% | $0.91 | 52.84% |
| COFS | ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.00 | 70.38% |
| FCBP | First Choice Bancorp | 3.45% | $1.00 | 34.34% |
| NXST | Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | 3.45% | $7.20 | 42.75% |
| STBA | S&T Bancorp, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.35 | 29.75% |
| VABK | Virginia National Bankshares Corporation | 3.45% | $1.37 | 55.94% |
| F-PB | Ford Motor Company 6.20% Notes | 3.44% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| 0K3B.L | The Mosaic Company | 3.43% | $0.87 | 22.53% |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial Corp. | 3.43% | $1.07 | 43.87% |
| CTBI | Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.93 | 37.41% |
| IIIN | Insteel Industries, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.11 | 53.05% |
| JJSF | J&J Snack Foods Corp. | 3.43% | $3.11 | 92.62% |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial Corporation | 3.43% | $2.49 | 42.22% |
| ALRS | Alerus Financial Corporation | 3.41% | $0.77 | 39.09% |
| CNXC | Concentrix Corporation | 3.41% | $1.40 | 28.16% |
| FBP | First BanCorp. | 3.41% | $0.71 | 34.06% |
| GLO | Clough Global Opportunities Fund | 3.41% | $0.19 | 15.90% |
| OPBK | OP Bancorp | 3.41% | $0.48 | 30.19% |
| PHX | PHX Minerals Inc. | 3.39% | $0.15 | 81.44% |
| WHG | Westwood Holdings Group, Inc. | 3.39% | $0.60 | 73.76% |
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival, Inc. | 3.38% | $0.59 | 28.17% |
| OGS | ONE Gas, Inc. | 3.37% | $2.61 | 61.93% |
| VALU | Value Line, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.25 | 55.36% |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.30 | 54.79% |
| AVNT | Avient Corporation | 3.35% | $1.06 | 86.14% |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.06 | 53.00% |
| VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.15 | 48.89% |
| WAFD | WaFd, Inc. | 3.35% | $1.08 | 37.44% |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.32 | 41.44% |
| PFG | Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.99 | 43.04% |
| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | 3.33% | $1.31 | 60.97% |
| NFYS | Enphys Acquisition Corp. | 3.33% | $0.37 | 68.70% |
| KMPR | Kemper Corporation | 3.32% | $1.31 | 32.45% |