Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2,805.79 - $3,784.90 | $3,307.68 |
| Multi-Stage | $8,681.25 - $9,626.36 | $9,143.77 |
| Blended Fair Value | $6,225.73 | |
| Current Price | $13,710.00 | |
| Upside | -54.59% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -12.55% | -7.61% | 165.42 | 215.56 | 219.26 | 487.96 | 272.61 | 323.43 | 110.05 | 292.52 | 196.23 | 115.22 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -23.26% | -1.69% | -55.07% | 79.00% | -15.71% | 193.89% | -62.38% | 49.07% | 70.32% | -68.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.67% | 1.46% | 1.30% | 1.80% | 0.82% | 0.78% | 0.38% | 0.72% | 0.52% | 0.23% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 11,262.02 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,784.82 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 7,477.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,252.40 | 1,407.75 | 844.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 7,477.20 | 7,477.20 | 7,477.20 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,252.40 | -1,407.75 | -844.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5,224.79 | 6,069.44 | 6,632.55 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.98 | 17.98 | 17.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 290.59 | 337.57 | 368.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 210.50 | 210.50 | 210.50 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 290.59 | 337.57 | 368.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 501.10 | 548.08 | 579.39 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | -9.61% | -8.61% | -7.61% |
| Fair Value | $2,805.79 | $3,307.68 | $3,784.90 |
| Upside / Downside | -79.53% | -75.87% | -72.39% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 11,262.02 | 10,292.33 | 9,406.13 | 8,596.24 | 7,856.08 | 7,179.65 | 7,395.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 33.61% | 44.89% | 56.16% | 67.44% | 78.72% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,784.82 | 4,619.77 | 5,282.88 | 5,797.54 | 6,184.42 | 6,461.69 | 6,840.41 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | -9.61% | -8.61% | -7.61% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,289.03 | 4,336.48 | 4,383.93 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,553.52 | 4,654.83 | 4,757.25 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,639.37 | 4,795.06 | 4,954.19 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,594.65 | 4,801.37 | 5,014.99 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,456.95 | 4,709.00 | 4,972.34 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 133,553.12 | 141,106.03 | 148,996.85 |
| Equity Value (M) | 156,086.63 | 164,402.77 | 173,079.56 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.98 | 17.98 | 17.98 |
| Fair Value | $8,681.25 | $9,143.77 | $9,626.36 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.68% | -33.31% | -29.79% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. | 3.53% | $1.65 | 54.01% |
| F-PC | Ford Motor Company 6% Notes due | 3.53% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| TECTP | Tectonic Financial, Inc. | 3.53% | $0.38 | 79.28% |
| AMFCX | American Funds American Mutual Fund | 3.52% | $2.06 | 90.87% |
| CRC | California Resources Corporation | 3.52% | $1.64 | 35.94% |
| FAF | First American Financial Corporation | 3.51% | $2.14 | 46.13% |
| GIC | Global Industrial Company | 3.51% | $1.03 | 58.36% |
| 0R0G.L | Mondelez International, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.89 | 69.92% |
| DCP | DCP Midstream, LP | 3.50% | $1.46 | 34.00% |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | 3.50% | $1.48 | 70.35% |
| WSO | Watsco, Inc. | 3.50% | $12.16 | 83.88% |
| 0QYY.L | Harley-Davidson, Inc. | 3.49% | $0.72 | 17.57% |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial Corporation | 3.49% | $1.97 | 52.13% |
| TRST | TrustCo Bank Corp NY | 3.49% | $1.44 | 48.14% |
| OMC | Omnicom Group Inc. | 3.47% | $2.83 | 41.26% |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. | 3.47% | $0.55 | 61.73% |
| UTL | Unitil Corporation | 3.47% | $1.70 | 61.75% |
| BF-A | Brown-Forman Corporation | 3.45% | $0.91 | 52.84% |
| COFS | ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.00 | 70.38% |
| FCBP | First Choice Bancorp | 3.45% | $1.00 | 34.34% |
| NXST | Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | 3.45% | $7.20 | 42.75% |
| STBA | S&T Bancorp, Inc. | 3.45% | $1.35 | 29.75% |
| VABK | Virginia National Bankshares Corporation | 3.45% | $1.37 | 55.94% |
| F-PB | Ford Motor Company 6.20% Notes | 3.44% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| 0K3B.L | The Mosaic Company | 3.43% | $0.87 | 22.53% |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial Corp. | 3.43% | $1.07 | 43.87% |
| CTBI | Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.93 | 37.41% |
| IIIN | Insteel Industries, Inc. | 3.43% | $1.11 | 53.05% |
| JJSF | J&J Snack Foods Corp. | 3.43% | $3.11 | 92.62% |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial Corporation | 3.43% | $2.49 | 42.22% |
| ALRS | Alerus Financial Corporation | 3.41% | $0.77 | 39.09% |
| CNXC | Concentrix Corporation | 3.41% | $1.40 | 28.16% |
| FBP | First BanCorp. | 3.41% | $0.71 | 34.06% |
| GLO | Clough Global Opportunities Fund | 3.41% | $0.19 | 15.90% |
| OPBK | OP Bancorp | 3.41% | $0.48 | 30.19% |
| PHX | PHX Minerals Inc. | 3.39% | $0.15 | 81.44% |
| WHG | Westwood Holdings Group, Inc. | 3.39% | $0.60 | 73.76% |
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival, Inc. | 3.38% | $0.59 | 28.17% |
| OGS | ONE Gas, Inc. | 3.37% | $2.61 | 61.93% |
| VALU | Value Line, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.25 | 55.36% |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities, Inc. | 3.36% | $1.30 | 54.79% |
| AVNT | Avient Corporation | 3.35% | $1.06 | 86.14% |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.06 | 53.00% |
| VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. | 3.35% | $2.15 | 48.89% |
| WAFD | WaFd, Inc. | 3.35% | $1.08 | 37.44% |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.32 | 41.44% |
| PFG | Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 3.34% | $2.99 | 43.04% |
| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | 3.33% | $1.31 | 60.97% |
| NFYS | Enphys Acquisition Corp. | 3.33% | $0.37 | 68.70% |
| KMPR | Kemper Corporation | 3.32% | $1.31 | 32.45% |