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SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.70 - $22.61$19.07
Multi-Stage$25.75 - $28.26$26.98
Blended Fair Value$23.03
Current Price$23.39
Upside-1.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021201520142013201220112010
DPS0.00%0.00%0.740.831.270.490.080.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---10.84%-34.88%158.33%540.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.63%4.05%0.00%0.00%0.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)864.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)315.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)549.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)172.80108.0064.80
Cash Retained (M)549.00549.00549.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-172.80-108.00-64.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.20441.00484.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)389.37389.37389.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.131.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.131.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.781.942.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.70$19.07$22.61
Upside / Downside-32.87%-18.47%-3.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)864.00855.36846.81838.34829.95821.66846.31
Payout Ratio36.46%47.17%57.88%68.58%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)315.00403.44490.09574.96658.09739.49782.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)366.13369.86373.60
Year 2 PV (M)403.61411.89420.26
Year 3 PV (M)429.71443.00456.56
Year 4 PV (M)446.34464.84483.91
Year 5 PV (M)455.16478.86503.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,924.908,337.578,767.25
Equity Value (M)10,025.8510,506.0211,005.11
Shares Outstanding (M)389.37389.37389.37
Fair Value$25.75$26.98$28.26
Upside / Downside10.09%15.36%20.84%

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