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OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.56 - $86.92$49.89
Multi-Stage$23.22 - $25.32$24.25
Blended Fair Value$37.07
Current Price$17.57
Upside110.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.24%19.97%0.880.890.820.770.740.590.510.330.220.15
YoY Growth---0.77%7.92%6.74%3.71%25.34%15.82%53.29%52.87%45.13%5.48%
Dividend Yield--5.18%5.61%4.45%3.83%3.10%3.73%2.12%1.25%0.77%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.969.975.98
Cash Retained (M)30.3430.3430.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.96-9.97-5.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.3820.3724.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.7757.7757.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.56$49.89$86.92
Upside / Downside85.32%183.93%394.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.7984.9890.5096.39102.65109.32112.60
Payout Ratio61.98%67.58%73.19%78.79%84.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.4557.4366.2475.9486.6398.39104.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.1652.6553.15
Year 2 PV (M)54.6355.6756.72
Year 3 PV (M)56.8858.5160.18
Year 4 PV (M)58.9361.1963.52
Year 5 PV (M)60.7863.7166.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,058.241,109.351,162.42
Equity Value (M)1,341.611,401.091,462.75
Shares Outstanding (M)57.7757.7757.77
Fair Value$23.22$24.25$25.32
Upside / Downside32.17%38.03%44.10%

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