Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Next Capital Public Company Limited (NCAP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.77 - $4.00$3.37
Multi-Stage$4.40 - $4.84$4.62
Blended Fair Value$4.00
Current Price$3.22
Upside24.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.130.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)523.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)493.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.7465.4639.28
Cash Retained (M)493.75493.75493.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.74-65.46-39.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)389.01428.28454.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.77$3.37$4.00
Upside / Downside-13.83%4.77%24.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)523.72518.48513.29508.16503.08498.05512.99
Payout Ratio5.72%22.58%39.43%56.29%73.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.97117.06202.41286.04367.97448.24474.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)106.35107.43108.52
Year 2 PV (M)167.06170.48173.95
Year 3 PV (M)214.48221.11227.88
Year 4 PV (M)250.67261.06271.76
Year 5 PV (M)277.41291.85306.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,926.495,183.025,450.13
Equity Value (M)5,942.446,234.966,539.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
Fair Value$4.40$4.62$4.84
Upside / Downside36.70%43.43%50.43%

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