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Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242.07 - $515.99$344.27
Multi-Stage$211.58 - $230.69$220.97
Blended Fair Value$282.62
Current Price$282.20
Upside0.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.61%10.07%8.928.417.757.416.936.486.486.215.544.42
YoY Growth--6.06%8.58%4.56%6.87%7.01%0.06%4.22%12.24%25.13%29.44%
Dividend Yield--2.86%2.97%3.21%3.06%2.79%3.20%3.38%3.65%3.37%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,046.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,959.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,401.00875.63525.38
Cash Retained (M)1,959.001,959.001,959.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,401.00-875.63-525.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)558.001,083.381,433.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)541.50541.50541.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.032.002.65
LTM Dividend per Share9.329.329.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.032.002.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3511.3211.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Fair Value$242.07$344.27$515.99
Upside / Downside-14.22%22.00%82.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,005.007,397.827,812.678,250.798,713.479,202.109,478.16
Payout Ratio72.03%75.63%79.22%82.81%86.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,046.005,594.786,189.246,832.787,529.038,281.898,767.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)5,080.495,129.065,177.63
Year 2 PV (M)5,103.685,201.725,300.70
Year 3 PV (M)5,116.425,264.565,415.53
Year 4 PV (M)5,119.545,318.135,522.44
Year 5 PV (M)5,113.805,362.955,621.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)89,038.3093,376.2697,881.68
Equity Value (M)114,572.24119,652.68124,919.69
Shares Outstanding (M)541.50541.50541.50
Fair Value$211.58$220.97$230.69
Upside / Downside-25.02%-21.70%-18.25%

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