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E-Star Commercial Management Company Limited (6668.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.90 - $4.50$3.64
Multi-Stage$6.78 - $7.45$7.11
Blended Fair Value$5.38
Current Price$1.19
Upside351.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-10.18%0.00%0.160.060.120.050.000.280.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--153.98%-45.20%133.82%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--14.37%5.61%6.24%1.64%0.00%7.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)229.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.1039.4423.66
Cash Retained (M)86.1286.1286.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.10-39.44-23.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.0146.6862.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,013.291,013.291,013.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.41%6.41%6.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.90$3.64$4.50
Upside / Downside143.99%205.99%277.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315.50312.35309.22306.13303.07300.04309.04
Payout Ratio72.71%76.16%79.62%83.08%86.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)229.39237.90246.21254.34262.28270.04285.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.41%6.41%6.41%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)221.31223.57225.83
Year 2 PV (M)213.08217.46221.87
Year 3 PV (M)204.77211.11217.57
Year 4 PV (M)196.45204.59212.98
Year 5 PV (M)188.16197.95208.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,845.626,150.016,466.96
Equity Value (M)6,869.397,204.697,553.36
Shares Outstanding (M)1,013.291,013.291,013.29
Fair Value$6.78$7.11$7.45
Upside / Downside469.69%497.50%526.41%

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