Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chongqing VDL Electronics Co., Ltd. (301121.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.05 - $99.02$92.80
Multi-Stage$57.89 - $63.50$60.64
Blended Fair Value$76.72
Current Price$52.91
Upside45.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS47.85%0.00%0.470.170.080.040.010.070.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--174.10%115.30%96.48%548.22%-90.60%1,055.88%241.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.11%0.69%0.19%0.06%0.01%0.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.674.802.88
Cash Retained (M)11.0011.0011.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.67-4.80-2.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.326.208.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.0777.0777.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.05$92.80$99.02
Upside / Downside58.85%75.39%87.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.3740.8743.5246.3549.3652.5754.15
Payout Ratio71.34%75.07%78.80%82.54%86.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.3730.6834.3038.2642.5947.3250.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.7430.0230.30
Year 2 PV (M)32.2332.8433.46
Year 3 PV (M)34.8435.8436.86
Year 4 PV (M)37.6039.0440.53
Year 5 PV (M)40.4942.4544.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,286.254,493.274,708.23
Equity Value (M)4,461.144,673.464,893.85
Shares Outstanding (M)77.0777.0777.07
Fair Value$57.89$60.64$63.50
Upside / Downside9.40%14.61%20.02%

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