Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ningbo Shuanglin Auto Parts Co.,Ltd. (300100.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$226.15 - $266.45$249.70
Multi-Stage$189.62 - $208.13$198.70
Blended Fair Value$224.20
Current Price$44.47
Upside404.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.49%8.44%0.190.000.710.200.220.030.150.020.100.13
YoY Growth--4,585.33%-99.42%255.86%-10.38%631.57%-80.00%655.30%-79.89%-22.67%52.05%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.06%12.48%3.58%3.64%0.87%1.95%0.14%0.54%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)532.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)97.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)435.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.5666.6039.96
Cash Retained (M)435.11435.11435.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.56-66.60-39.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)328.55368.51395.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.69397.69397.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.930.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.930.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.24
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$226.15$249.70$266.45
Upside / Downside408.56%461.51%499.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)532.81567.44604.33643.61685.44730.00751.90
Payout Ratio18.34%32.67%47.00%61.33%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)97.70185.38284.05394.76518.66657.00695.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)187.33189.11190.88
Year 2 PV (M)290.06295.58301.16
Year 3 PV (M)407.36419.05430.97
Year 4 PV (M)540.85561.65583.04
Year 5 PV (M)692.32725.76760.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,289.5776,829.4880,504.88
Equity Value (M)75,407.4879,020.6382,771.40
Shares Outstanding (M)397.69397.69397.69
Fair Value$189.62$198.70$208.13
Upside / Downside326.39%346.82%368.03%

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